FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT AUTOMATED TRANSIT NETWORKS (ATN)
BENEFITS VS. COSTS
What is the likely benefit/cost ratio?
In the small town of Greeley, Colorado we are finding a $97 M ATN project should uplift service area property values by approximately $768 M for a benefit/cost ratio of 7.9 on this factor alone.
What are the benefits?
Benefits include mobility improvements, congestion reduction, energy conservation and emissions reduction as well as improved economic development. Learn more…
- Mobility improvements – especially to those too young, old, infirm, or poor to have direct access to a car
- Public service support – e.g. improved ability to reach medical services
- Equity benefits – increases economic and social opportunities for people who are economically, physically and socially disadvantaged
- Efficiency benefits – savings and other benefits that result when transit substitutes for automobile travel
- Vehicle cost savings – automobile to transit shifts provide vehicle cost savings to consumers
- Avoided chauffeuring – the additional automobile travel specifically to carry a passenger such as a schoolchild
- Congestion reduction
- Parking cost savings
- Safety, health and security impacts
- Roadway costs
- Energy conservation and emission reductions
- Noise impacts
- Water pollution
- Travel time impacts
- Land use impacts
- Economic development impacts including property value impacts
What are the costs?
Capital costs vary substantially based on local conditions. Roughly speaking, all costs including guideway, stations, vehicles, etc. range from about US$ 8 M to US$ 20 M per route mile (US$5 M to US$12 M per km).
Operating costs are about US$ 0.50 – 1.00 per vehicle mile (US$ 0.30 – 0.60 per vehicle km).
How do ATN capital and O&M costs compare to bus rapid transit and light rail?
Smaller vehicles require smaller infrastructure that costs less. Small vehicles are more easily kept mostly full and can be pulled out of service more readily. Combined with reduced stopping and starting, this keeps O&M costs low. Learn more…
Because the vehicles are so much smaller, ATN column loading is approximately ten percent of that for automated people movers and light rail. Guideway beams and columns are thus much smaller and cost far less. Since vehicles are much smaller, more are needed, and mass production economies are more achievable. Thus, capital costs are much lower. Even assuming the costs were the same on a per-kilometre basis, ATN is much more cost-effective on a per-passenger mile basis, which is what matters. This is because many studies around the world show that the much higher level of service offered (short walking distances and waiting times coupled with higher average speeds enabled by nonstop travel) results in a ridership approximately four times higher.
Vehicle capital and operating costs are proportional to vehicle weights. Vehicle weight is in turn proportional to passenger capacity. Large vehicles have high costs balanced by high passenger-carrying capacity. However, the cost-effectiveness of large vehicle systems suffers because, during off-peak hours, many large vehicles must continue to circulate even though they are mostly empty. With small vehicle systems, most vehicles can be parked during off-peak hours.
A comparison of ATN with light rail and bus rapid transit can be found here: http://www.advancedtransit.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Muller-ATN-LRT-BRT-Comparison.pdf
OWNER CONCERNS
What is the process to implement an ATN system?
- Preliminary investigation
- Detailed planning, environmental and preliminary design
- Very short demonstration system (or key people visit existing systems)
- Pilot project
- Project expansion
Who will pay for it?
All but #1 above should be fundable through federal, state, and other grants/private financing.
Who will own it?
This depends on local laws and preferences, but the community should always own a significant portion.
Who will operate it?
Typically, the project team will operate the system. If desired, operations can be transferred to the community after a suitable training period.
How can we be sure enough people will ride an urban ATN system?
People decide whether to use their car or go by bus, train, taxi, or bicycle based on two primary factors (assuming all these modes are available to them):
- Cost
- Time
Since we can show ATN will cost less and take less time, we know more people will use it than use regular transit. Learn more…
Many studies around the world indicate that the percent using ATN will be significantly higher than that using conventional transit. These studies generally ignore additional factors such as that ATN is much safer (zero injury accidents in 200 million passenger miles (300 million passenger kilometres)) and more comfortable (everyone gets a seat). A primary purpose of a feasibility study is to ensure the specific project will attract sufficient riders willing to pay the planned fares.
How can lots of people be carried in a system using small vehicles?
The primary worldwide mode of transportation is a small vehicle called the car or automobile. Cars carry billions of people every day. Using a small vehicle for public transportation is impractical when it requires a driver. Driverless small vehicles are the most practical and economical form of public transportation provided they are separated from other traffic and pedestrians. The paradigm changes when you remove the driver.
What is the speed and capacity of ATN systems that are presently commercially available?
Maximum speed is 25 – 45 mph. Maximum capacity is 2,000 to 19,000 passengers per hour per direction.
Can ATN be integrated to work with other modes such as trains, buses, and taxis?
Absolutely! Most other modes, especially trains and bus rapid transit, function best in corridors. ATN functions best as a network of guideways spread throughout the service area. Thus, ATN can serve the areas between corridors and help bring passengers to the systems operating in the corridors. Studies show that adding ATN to the transit mix generally attracts additional riders to the ATN system as well as to the legacy transit systems – all transit modes tend to benefit.
Wouldn’t adding ATN to the mix of available transit modes just mean another transfer?
Initially maybe yes. Then as the ATN network grows people will find they can go anywhere on it with no, or few, stops and with no transfers. The legacy transit will continue to have transfers (even within the same mode) and attract some trips while the ATN system attracts many more trips. Use of cars will diminish as will congestion.
The high level of service provided can imply a system intended for the elite. How will poor people afford it?
ATN systems can provide a two-tier fare system. Premium fare will pay for the use of an entire pod for a party traveling together. They will typically wait less than a minute and travel nonstop to their destination. An economy fare will buy a seat for one person. They may have to wait a few minutes to facilitate ridesharing and make a few intermediate stops. Matching fares to the level of service provided enables good transport for the entire cross-section of the population.
What is the impact on local jobs?
While no drivers are required, ATN systems generate many jobs in construction, maintenance and operation. In addition, some or most aspects of the system are usually locally manufactured/assembled. Passengers switching from cars would impact fewer existing jobs than those switching from buses. ATN will attract many more riders than conventional transit and thus generate more (and better) transit jobs despite requiring no drivers.
Why has a large ATN deployment not happened before?
Largely because of confirmation bias. This means we believe what we are comfortable believing. It took doctors 140 years to codify handwashing because they did not want to believe they were killing their patients. Similarly transport agencies who run buses and trains and acquire transportation systems, tend to believe big buses and trains are the answer to public transport, not small vehicles.
Why think ATN can work when driverless cars are struggling to emerge?
ATN has been working in public service since 1975. ATN is a subset of automated people mover (APM) which has been in wider public service for even longer. ATN (and APM) operates on dedicated guideways separated from other traffic and pedestrians. It has no need to deal with the highly variable environment that is the downfall of driverless car technologies.
Won’t people object to overhead guideways?
This is not like elevated train structures creating darkness underneath. ATN guideways are narrow and elegant and fit within existing road rights of way. We believe in adding architectural value to the streetscape.
How can ATN compete with cars when it is not door-to-door?
The walk time should be less than about 5 minutes. Modern ATN should deliver faster, more reliable travel in peak hours than cars. Over 30% of the population does not have direct access to a car.
How can ATN systems be protected from graffiti, urination, litter, sickness, and disorderly behavior?
All modern ATN systems have in-station and on-board CCTV monitoring. Morgantown does not, but has fooled riders into thinking it has, so they are always on their best behavior on the system. AI CCTV interpretation can automatically alert a controller to problematic behavior.
SAFETY
Why is ATN inherently safe?
ATN vehicles operate on their own dedicated guideways and are separated from other traffic and pedestrians. There are no crossings, only merges and diverges. Merge controllers ensure that vehicles are dynamically maneuvered to make space for each other at merges. Altogether, ATN has completed over 200 million injury-free passenger miles (300 million passenger km).
How can a pod be both lightweight and safe?
ATN pods are designed never to collide with each other so crash worthiness is not required.
How can we be sure reliability, safety and capacity would work in a busy urban setting?
ATN operates on dedicated guideways separated from other traffic and pedestrians. Busy urban settings have no impact on it, provided it can handle the passenger demand. All modern ATN systems achieve over 99.5% reliability – five times more reliable than transit level of service A. Learn more…
It is well proven that ATN safety far exceeds that of all other surface transportation systems except automated people movers of which it is a subset.
Morgantown demonstrated 5,000 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd) with 22-passenger vehicles back in 1975. Vectus demonstrated 7,000 pphpd capabilities with six-passenger vehicles around 2008. Modutram trains up to four pods together to achieve 19,000 pphpd. Modern ATN systems will soon achieve these capacities or more with single pods now the American Society of Civil Engineers Automated People Mover Standards (2021 edition) have been changed.
What if a passenger becomes critically ill during a trip?
A push of a button gets them in touch with a controller who can see what is going on in the vehicle and direct it to the hospital, police station or have emergency personnel meet it at the next stop. AI CCTV interpretation can automatically alert a controller to problematic behavior in a vehicle.
OPERATIONS
What are the differences between a network of one-way loops and a network of two-way guideways?
One-way guideway infrastructure is smaller and less obtrusive. The station infrastructure is also simpler and smaller. A network of one-way loops can support a bigger service area with more small stations. Generally, the service area will be about 50% bigger for the same capital cost. Learn more…
One-way loops do result in some out-of-the-way travel, but this usually only amounts to one or two minutes per trip. Two-way guideways work best for connecting a few stations along a corridor. In most other circumstances one-way loops work best. Complex layouts comprised of interconnecting two-way guideways require complex interchanges or speed- and capacity-limiting roundabouts.
If the guideway is elevated, how do passengers get up to it?
Elevated ATN stations will be accessed by stairs leading to a platform that is level with the vehicle floor (no step required to enter the vehicle). Most or all elevated stations will be equipped with lifts (elevators) and/or escalators to facilitate access by the handicapped. Learn more…
In some circumstances it is possible to bring ATN stations down to grade to allow direct access from the sidewalk level. It is also possible to attach ATN stations to an upper floor of a building. Typically, the vehicle will stop outside the building adjacent to sliding doors in the building exterior wall. The vehicle doors will be synchronized to open simultaneously with the sliding doors and permit direct access to/from the interior of the building. The building’s vertical circulation system can be used to access other floors.
Will all stations be elevated?
This depends on the availability of surface space. At-grade stations take up more space but are easier to access and do not require elevators, which are difficult to maintain. We plan to analyze each station location to decide if it should be elevated or at-grade. Another option is to attach a station to an upper floor of a building.
Will all guideways be elevated?
Probably. However, in circumstances where no pedestrians or vehicles need to cross the guideway for an extended length, it is possible to locate the guideway close to the ground. This would save money, but the guideway would need to be fenced to avoid pods colliding with stray pedestrians or animals.
Are pods wheelchair accessible?
All ATN pods presently in public service are wheelchair accessible. They will also be accessible to bicycles and push chairs.
How do pods merge at speed at intersections?
In a moving dynamic block control system, pods must stay within a virtual moving block of space that no other pod is allowed to enter. The merge controller reserves merge space for each block in advance, so merge conflicts or backups never happen. A fixed block system works similarly but, because the blocks are fixed, the pods must remain further apart from each other.
What is the “network effect”?
A network with only two stations offers only two origin – destination choices. One with four stations offers twelve choices. Thus, the choices (utility) increase exponentially faster than the number of stations. This is the network effect. Learn more…
Because the utility/ridership increases dramatically with additional stations, the farebox revenue rises faster than the annual costs (operating costs plus capital cost amortization). When there are sufficient stations, the system becomes profitable. Depending on numerous factors, profitability usually occurs once there are more than thirty to eighty stations.
Why does the network effect not work for buses and trains?
Because as you add stations you add stops and transfers. Adding stations thus makes buses and trains slower and less convenient which detracts from utility.
SCALABILITY
How can you be sure the system can be scaled to a large size and capacity when existing deployments are much smaller?
First it should be understood that Morgantown (opened in 1975) has demonstrated capacity up to 5,000 passengers per hour per direction using antiquated technology. They put 3,000 an hour through one station on game days. ATN systems are designed with distributed (as opposed to centralized) control systems. It is easy enough to demonstrate hand-off from one zone to another. Learn more…
Typically, central control has no need (or capability) to simultaneously control thousands of vehicles. Vehicle control is handled on a zonal basis with zone controllers handing off vehicles to each other. Most of what central control does is manage the assignment of routes to pods. Expanding the system involves adding zones. It never involves transfers because all stations are accessible to all vehicles.
PROBLEMS
What if a pod breaks down and blocks a guideway?
Evidence shows this almost never happens. Transit level of service A is 97.5% availability. Morgantown PRT (going on 48 years now) achieves 98.5%. Modern PRT systems are getting 99.5% – FIVE TIMES more reliable than transit. Read more…
Should a pod break down despite the extensive self-monitoring and preventive maintenance, it can be pushed into the next station by the following vehicle, or a maintenance vehicle can back down and tow it out. In the worst case, passengers can be removed by a cherry picker and the vehicle can be removed by a crane.
What happens in the event of a power failure?
ATN systems must always have multiple power sources and key control computers must themselves be redundant with redundant back-up power sources. Nonetheless, we must be prepared for failure. Learn more…
Most systems use battery-powered vehicles that have preplanned routes that enable them to complete their journeys without outside power and with little data input. In the event of a complete power failure, no new passenger trips would be started and vehicles in stations would be sent to storage and/or moved out onto the station exit guideway once empty in order to ensure there is room for other vehicles destined to that station.
What happens if a traffic jam occurs at a merge?
If merges start getting overloaded the control system will divert vehicles to different routes and limit departures heading for the overloaded merges.
CONSTRUCTION/DEPLOYMENT ISSUES
How disruptive will construction be?
Typically, most construction elements will be manufactured offsite, shipped to site, and assembled into final position. In many situations the construction will be taking place in or behind the sidewalk with some disruption of pedestrian traffic and little or no disruption of road traffic. In some situations, such as when the guideway is being placed in a narrow median, there may be the need to close one lane of traffic. Read more…
Unlike road construction, the construction process is very quick, and any disruption will not last long. In sensitive areas, construction could be limited to nighttime only.
Does the entire network have to be completed before any portion is opened to traffic?
No. As soon as one loop with more than one station is completed, it can be opened to traffic. As more loops are finished, they can be added to the network. This is the preferred way of opening the system to the public. It allows the public and the operators to build confidence in the system starting small and expanding over several years.
Can an initial pilot system be built to demonstrate how the system works and see if people will use it?
Yes. However, it must be understood that a pilot system with few station pairs will generate little traffic and may therefore appear to be a failure. In addition, it is unlikely to be financially viable and if expansion of the system must wait for the pilot system to be approved, private financing may not be available for the pilot system.
What are the challenges in securing air rights?
ATN requires use of right-of-way just like a powerline. The owner/regulator of the right-of-way (typically for a road) must give their permission for ATN to share it. Aviation authorities must approve guideways located near airports or forming potential obstructions to aircraft flight.
How do you construct around trees and streetlights?
ATN alignments are more flexible and much narrower than those for elevated light rail or automated people movers. Nonetheless not all obstacles can be avoided, and some will need to be relocated or removed. Streetlights can be replaced with lights supported by the guideway. Some powerlines could be carried by the guideway. Most systems can fit well under trees with some trimming.
How much space will this system take up?
Guideways are supported on columns of about 2.5 ft (75 cm) in diameter placed about 65 ft (20 m) apart. If stations are elevated, they too will have a small surface footprint for columns, stairs and elevators. The entire footprint will be less than one percent of the footprint of a bus rapid transit system and, in most cases, should fit within existing road reserves (rights of way).